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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple script. It often acts as a kind of apology. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a direct line: the coach who orchestrated the biggest improvement receives the award. In practice, it fuels an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding excellent leadership or merely the most shocking surprise.

Yet this year's field is distinctly different. The list of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners falling away and recent strugglers rising collectively. In an ordinary year, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and fun year, he's competing with multiple other elite candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper system, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his special ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an offense built solely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to create big plays from broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Virtually every bet – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the building with the immense hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

In a normal year, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet this isn't a typical year!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained winning. However Johnson falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the leadership aspects, which was not a guarantee after his early public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team wobbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He gets the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still