Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a automatic firearm fired at a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a assumption familiar among international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does minimal to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
