Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Both composes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
